Volatilidad electoral y desafección política en las elecciones parlamentarias chilenas 1993-2009

Abstract

Most of the studies on the party system and elections held in Chile over the last two decades have tended to assume that the stability of voting results recorded between 1989 and 2009 is the consequence of the permanence of electoral preferences. However, this assumption is refuted by the increasing disaffection generated from the second half of the nineties. Based on this background, throughout the article an alternative explanation that allows understanding the “stability paradox” is proposed. For this purpose, an analysis of electoral surveys made between 1997 and 2009 which include retrospective questions– is conducted. This analysis leads to the conclusion that stability is maintained in parallel to the increase in non-stable voting rates. At the same time, it appears that low levels of electoral volatility are based on the self-compensated character of the set of voters’ mobility changes and variations in the composition of the effective electorate, which give account for a diversification in the forms of linkage between Chilean electorate and the political representation system over the period.